Mercian Way: which way and when to ride
The best month for Mercian Way is September: 78% of days were dry with highs of 10–30 °C. In September the wind barely favours either direction — on average 0.7 km/h along the route (ERA5 2006–2025, daytime 9:00–18:00).
Weather by month
| Month | Good days | Rain days ≥ 1 mm | Rain, mm | Avg high | Days ≥ 30 °C | Days < 10 °C | Daylight, h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 15% | 21% | 61 | 7 °C | 0% | 77% | 8.2 † |
| February | 23% | 22% | 53 | 8 °C | 0% | 70% | 9.8 † |
| March | 43% | 24% | 56 | 10 °C | 0% | 47% | 11.7 |
| April | 67% | 24% | 47 | 13 °C | 0% | 16% | 13.8 |
| May | 71% | 29% | 68 | 16 °C | 0% | 2% | 15.7 |
| June | 74% | 25% | 64 | 19 °C | 0% | 0% | 16.7 |
| July | 71% | 27% | 69 | 21 °C | 2% | 0% | 16.3 |
| August | 74% | 25% | 64 | 20 °C | 1% | 0% | 14.7 |
| September | 78% | 22% | 60 | 18 °C | 0% | 0% | 12.6 |
| October | 74% | 22% | 73 | 14 °C | 0% | 4% | 10.5 † |
| November | 43% | 22% | 72 | 10 °C | 0% | 43% | 8.7 † |
| December | 22% | 23% | 70 | 8 °C | 0% | 66% | 7.7 † |
Best months are all months within 3 percentage points of the best one. † less than 11 hours of daylight — long stages get tight.
Wind by month
| Month | Wind Salisbury → Chester, km/h | Headwind > 15 km/h, Salisbury → Chester | Headwind > 15 km/h, Chester → Salisbury | Better way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.7 | 8% | 16% | either |
| February | +1.9 | 10% | 16% | either |
| March | +0.5 | 10% | 13% | either |
| April | 0.0 | 9% | 11% | either |
| May | −0.3 | 9% | 10% | either |
| June | +0.4 | 6% | 9% | either |
| July | +0.4 | 6% | 10% | either |
| August | +0.8 | 8% | 12% | either |
| September | +0.7 | 8% | 11% | either |
| October | +2.8 | 7% | 17% | Salisbury → Chester |
| November | +1.8 | 9% | 16% | either |
| December | +3.2 | 7% | 17% | Salisbury → Chester |
Stages
The route is split into 3 stages of about 100–150 km between towns; each stage has its own page.
| Stage | km | Best month | Tailwind Salisbury → Chester in September, km/h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Salisbury → Stroud | 144 | September | +0.1 |
| 2. Stroud → Bridgnorth | 135 | September | +1.6 |
| 3. Bridgnorth → Chester | 125 | September | +0.5 |
How to read the numbers
Wind is the 10 m wind of a 25-km grid cell, daytime hours 9:00–18:00 local solar time; at saddle height in a sheltered valley it is weaker, on a coast or ridge stronger. A positive value is a tailwind. ERA5 slightly over-counts days with ≥ 1 mm of rain (by about 5–7 percentage points) and underestimates daily highs by 1–2 °C. Good day = less than 1 mm of rain between 9:00 and 18:00 (riding hours, local solar time) and a high between 10 and 30 °C; rain at night or in the evening does not spoil it.